📈 SPY Risk Metric

Structural Risk · Log-Linear Regression

SPY / USD

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Structural Risk

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AccumulateNeutralCaution

Fair Value

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Deviation

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VIX (Close)

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Price at Each Risk Level

Forward P/E Price Projections

S&P 500 EPS growth: % Y-o-Y · SPY ≈ SPX ÷ 10

Base EPS: $271 (2025 actual) · Current EPS Estimate 2026: $320 · Growth applied from 2025 forward · Last updated: Mar 2026 · Next recommended update: Jul 2026

Notable Historic Market Events

Date	Event	SPY Price	Risk	VIX High	1Y Return	2Y Return	3Y Return

SPY — Price Colored by Risk (Log Scale)

Risk Oscillator (0 – 1)

Structural Risk (Min/Max Normalized)

VIX — Fear Index

Chart based on VIX daily closes

Median 1-Year Forward Return by Risk Decile

DCA Simulator

Risk-Based Dollar Cost Averaging Backtest

USD Amount "x" Repeat Purchase Day of Month

Start Date End Date

Accumulate up to Risk Buying Strategy

Scale

Linear: x, 2x, 3x, 4x · Exponential: x, 2x, 4x, 8x · Fixed: 1x every period
Linear gives steady, predictable buys (max 4× base). Exponential goes heavier at lowest risk (max 8× base). Fixed invests the same amount every period regardless of risk — standard DCA baseline.

Methodology

Log-Linear Regression: log₁₀(price) vs days since Jan 4 1960 (modern S&P 500 era, scaled to SPY prices). Models exponential growth. The residual measures deviation from the long-run trend.

Structural Risk (Min/Max): Normalizes the residual against all-time extremes (0 = maximum undervaluation, 1 = maximum overvaluation). High when SPY is far above the regression trend line.

VIX Chart: Shown for reference as a fear/greed gauge. Not currently factored into the risk calculation.